Bitcoin May Find Its Bottom in Q4 2026, Analysts Predict
February 27 2026
Market Overview
After a brief rally that pushed Bitcoin (BTC) to a three‑month high of just over $70,000 on Wednesday, sellers re‑asserted control on Friday, pulling the price down to roughly $65,950 – a 5.5 % decline from the peak. The pullback has reignited discussions among market watchers about where the next major bottom could materialise. A growing chorus of analysts now argue that the cryptocurrency’s lowest point of the current bear cycle will likely occur in the fourth quarter of 2026.
Key Takeaways
- Technical and on‑chain metrics point to a bottom between September and November 2026.
- Exchange reserves have risen modestly, while “supply in profit” is back to 2022‑low levels, suggesting additional downside pressure.
- Historical post‑halving patterns indicate a 365‑ to 396‑day window from the market top (Oct 2025) to the cycle low, landing around Oct‑Nov 2026.
- Projected price range for the bottom spans $31,500 – $38,000, with some analysts allowing for a broader $30,000 – $45,000 window.
Why Analysts See a Late‑2026 Bottom
1. Post‑Halving Price Cycle
CryptoQuant’s on‑chain research highlights that Bitcoin’s previous halving‑driven cycles have typically seen their deepest corrections form between June and December of the year following the event. Since the most recent halving took place in May 2024, the “sweet spot” for a bottom now clusters around September‑November 2026. The firm’s chart overlays of past halving trends onto the current price action support this timing.
2. Historical Time‑To‑Low Metrics
Two independent analysts, known on X as “Darky” and “Batman,” have pointed out that past bear markets reached their troughs roughly 365 to 396 days after the preceding all‑time high. Bitcoin’s last peak, $126,000, was recorded on 2 Oct 2025. Adding a year‑plus to that date lands the expected low in October‑November 2026, reinforcing the timeframe suggested by CryptoQuant.
3. Supply‑In‑Profit Decline
The “supply in profit” indicator, which measures the proportion of Bitcoin held at a profit relative to the current price, has fallen back to levels seen at the depth of the 2022 bear market. When this metric is low, fewer holders are insulated from losses, increasing the likelihood of further selling pressure. CryptoQuant’s projection links this metric to a price corridor of roughly $31,500‑$38,000 for the bottom.
4. Rising Exchange Reserves
On‑chain data also shows a gradual uptick in the amount of BTC sitting on exchanges – from 2.723 million in mid‑January to 2.752 million today, an increase of about 28,500 BTC (+1 %). Higher reserves are traditionally interpreted as a bearish signal because they expand the pool of readily tradable supply that can outstrip demand. Analyst Axel Adler Jr. argues that until the reserve drops below the January low, selling pressure is likely to persist.
5. Long‑Term Holder Cost Basis Breach
The price has slipped beneath the Long‑Term Holder (LTH) true cost basis (approximately $65,700). When Bitcoin trades below this psychological level, long‑term investors face unrealised losses, which can trigger capitulation and accelerate downside moves. A chart shared by On‑Chain College highlights this breach and suggests a potential descent toward $42,000 or lower before a reversal can be contemplated.
Potential Price Scenarios
- Conservative Bottom: $31,500 – $38,000, aligned with the supply‑in‑profit model and historical draw‑down percentages (‑70 % to ‑75 % from the peak).
- Extended Low-End: $30,000 – $45,000, reflecting broader analyst estimates that incorporate the possibility of a deeper correction if exchange‑side selling intensifies.
- Short‑Term Support: The LTH cost basis around $65,700 may act as a temporary floor; breaching this level could push the market into the deeper ranges outlined above.
Outlook Beyond the Bottom
If the projected bottom materialises as anticipated, the subsequent cycle could see a classic “buy‑the‑dip” rally, especially given the scarcity dynamics that often follow prolonged periods of high exchange reserves. However, any upside will likely depend on macro‑economic factors, regulatory developments, and the broader risk‑on sentiment that influences crypto markets.
Conclusion
While Bitcoin’s price continues to fluctuate above $65,000, a convergence of on‑chain indicators, historical price cycles, and rising exchange reserves suggests that the cryptocurrency’s next major bottom may not arrive until the final quarter of 2026. Traders and investors should monitor the supply‑in‑profit metric, exchange reserve trends, and the LTH true cost basis for early signs of where the market is heading.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Readers should conduct their own research before making any trading decisions.
Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-to-30k-analysts-debate-when-what-price-btc-price-will-bottom?utm_source=rss_feed&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_partner_inbound
