Bitcoin Loses Its 126‑Week Bullish Trend – What the Charts Suggest Next
February 23 2026 – Cointelegraph
Bitcoin (BTC) closed its latest weekly candle below the 200‑period exponential moving average (EMA) for the first time since October 2023, bringing to an end a 126‑week (approximately 882‑day) up‑trend. The break has reignited debate over how long the market will remain in a correction phase, where support may be found, and what the next price target could be.
1. 200‑Week EMA – From Support to Possible Resistance
The 200‑week EMA is widely regarded as a long‑term trend line that separates expansionary moves from deeper corrective periods. Until this week, the EMA had acted as a floor for Bitcoin, keeping the price above roughly $67,600. With the weekly close now underneath that threshold, the line could rapidly flip from a supportive role to a resistance barrier.
Crypto analyst Rekt Capital highlighted the technical implication on X, noting that “the EMA has been lost as support and price could turn it into resistance on any upcoming recovery.”
Historical precedent shows that breaching this level does not guarantee a prolonged slump, but it does typically lengthen the time required for a reversal:
| Cycle | Weeks Below 200‑Week EMA | Recovery Time |
|---|---|---|
| 2018 | ~14 weeks | ~14 weeks |
| 2020 (COVID‑19) | ~8 weeks | ~8 weeks |
| 2022 | ~30 weeks | ~30 weeks |
Across these three notable periods the average duration under the EMA was about 17‑18 weeks, suggesting that a multi‑month stay below the line is not unprecedented.
2. On‑Chain Liveliness Signals a Cooling Market
Beyond price action, on‑chain metrics point to a slowdown in long‑term participant activity. Researcher Axel Adler Jr. observed that “entity‑adjusted liveliness” peaked in December 2025, after Bitcoin’s all‑time high near $126,000 in October. Since then, the liveliness ratio – the balance between coin‑days destroyed and created, adjusted for internal transfers – has slipped beneath its 30‑day and 90‑day moving averages. The 90‑day value remains above the 365‑day average (0.02622), a pattern that historically precedes extended accumulation phases lasting one to two years.
A sustained decline in liveliness typically reflects reduced spending and slower capital rotation. If this trend continues, the timeline to retake the 200‑week EMA could be extended, as participants become more cautious about re‑entering the market.
3. Realized Price Bands – The Emerging Demand Zone
On‑chain cost‑basis data adds another layer to the price outlook. Bitcoin’s realized price – the average price paid for coins based on when they were last moved – sits near $55,000. A “shifted” realized price band, derived from more recent transaction data, sits around $42,000. Historically, these bands outline the deepest value areas that the market references during drawdowns.
Since the weekly close, BTC is now sandwiched between the 200‑week EMA and the realized price clusters. Past cycles have shown that this region acts as a long‑term accumulation zone, often lasting six to eight months before a broader rally resumes.
If Bitcoin fails to reclaim the EMA within that window, the $55,000 level – representing the broader market’s average cost basis – and the lower $42,000 band could become focal points for liquidity seeking to exit positions.
4. What Traders Are Watching
- Short‑term technicals: The near‑term price action will likely test the EMA as resistance. A clear break above it could reignite bullish sentiment, while further declines may push the market toward the $55,000 realized price level.
- On‑chain health: Monitoring the liveliness metric and related measures (coin‑days destroyed/created) will help gauge whether long‑term investors are re‑engaging.
- Historical timelines: Given the average 17‑18‑week stay below the EMA in previous cycles, analysts caution against expecting an immediate bounce.
Key Takeaways
| Observation | Implication |
|---|---|
| Weekly close under 200‑week EMA | Technical support lost; EMA may become resistance. |
| Historical recovery periods | Prior cycles needed 8‑30 weeks to regain EMA – expect a multi‑month correction. |
| Liveliness metric declining | Reduced long‑term participant activity; could lengthen accumulation phase. |
| Realized price band between $42k‑$55k | Potential zones of liquidity and long‑term demand; watch for price action around $55k. |
| Overall market sentiment | Mixed – short‑term bearish pressure, but long‑term accumulation still possible. |
Outlook
While the breach of the 200‑week EMA marks a technical shift, Bitcoin’s long‑term trajectory remains contingent on on‑chain fundamentals and historical patterns. A decisive move above the EMA could reset the bullish narrative, but a prolonged stay below may see the market gravitate toward the $55,000 realized price level and the lower $42,000 band as the next points of reference.
Investors are advised to keep a close eye on both price‑action cues and on‑chain health indicators before making allocation decisions. As always, thorough due diligence and risk management are essential in navigating the next phase of Bitcoin’s price cycle.
Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/critical-bitcoin-weekly-trend-breaks-for-first-time-in-2-years-is-btc-done?utm_source=rss_feed&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_partner_inbound
