Bitcoin Exchange Inflows Spike as BTC Rally Stalls Near $75,000

Large‑scale deposits to centralized platforms surged on March 16, raising concerns about possible sell‑off pressure just as the cryptocurrency approaches a critical resistance zone.

Exchange inflows hit a multi‑month high

Data from on‑chain analytics firm CryptoQuant show that on Monday, March 16, centralized crypto exchanges absorbed ≈6,100 BTC within a single hour – the most substantial hourly intake since February 20. The proportion of “large” deposits (transactions of at least 1 BTC) accounted for 63 % of the total, a share not observed since mid‑October 2025.

CryptoQuant’s head of research, Julio Moreno, warned that such a concentration of sizeable inflows has historically preceded heightened selling activity. “When big holders move their coins onto exchanges, the usual intention is to liquidate or convert to stablecoins,” he noted.

Bitcoin’s recent price action

The inflow surge coincided with a ≈12 % rally for Bitcoin (BTC) in March, lifting the digital asset to a six‑week peak of roughly $76 000 on March 17. However, the price has since found repeated resistance just below the $75 000 mark. Trading‑view charts reveal the level being tested three times in the past 24 hours on the Coinbase market, each time prompting a pull‑back.

Moreno pointed to the on‑chain Realized Price (RP) metric – the average break‑even price of active traders – as a technical anchor. The lower band of the RP sits near $75 000, a zone that historically functions as price resistance during bearish phases. The overall RP, meanwhile, remains elevated at about $84 700, suggesting that many participants would need to sell at a loss to drive the market higher.

Macro backdrop: Federal Reserve meeting

The exchange inflow spike arrived only days before the U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy meeting scheduled for Wednesday. While markets have largely priced in a steady‑rate outlook – CME FedWatch tools indicate a 98.9 % probability that rates will stay unchanged and only a 1.1 % chance of an increase – the Fed could still signal a shift away from any cuts this year, especially in light of recent geopolitical tensions and persistent inflation concerns.

Such a stance would likely dampen risk‑on sentiment across the broader financial ecosystem, including crypto assets, and could amplify any sell pressure emanating from the newly‑arrived BTC on exchanges.

Analyst perspective and potential scenarios

• Selling pressure risk: The unprecedented share of large deposits implies that a segment of “whale” investors may be preparing to exit positions. Historical patterns show that when sizeable BTC amounts flow onto exchanges, short‑term price corrections often follow.

• Resistance test: If Bitcoin can break through the $75 k barrier, the next hurdle lies near the current RP level of $84.7 k. A sustained breach could trigger renewed buying interest from long‑term holders seeking to re‑enter at lower relative prices.

• Fed influence: Even absent an outright rate change, Fed commentary that forecloses the prospect of cuts this year could curb institutional inflows into riskier assets, indirectly pressuring BTC’s upside.

Key takeaways

Investors should monitor both on‑chain activity and macro‑economic cues in the coming days. A decisive move above the $75 k ceiling, coupled with a dovish Fed tone, could revive bullish momentum, while a failure to clear that barrier may expose the market to the downside risk implied by the recent surge in exchange deposits.

Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-inflows-exchanges-spike-resistance-75k?utm_source=rss_feed&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_partner_inbound