Bitcoin Market Capitalisation Slides Below $1.4 Trillion as Prediction‑Market Bets Target Further Declines
February 23 2026 – CoinDesk
Bitcoin (BTC) slipped under the $65,000 barrier over the weekend before edging back to roughly $65,900 on Monday. The dip came as traders on the Polymarket prediction platform raised the probability that the cryptocurrency could breach deeper support levels, fueling fresh concerns about the asset’s short‑term outlook.
Rising Bearish Odds on Polymarket
- $55,000 threshold: The market’s view that BTC could dip below $55,000 rose to 72 % on Monday, up 14 % from the previous day. Polymarket recorded about $1.2 billion in total betting volume for the event.
- $50,000 and $45,000 levels: Odds of a fall beneath $50,000 stood at 67 % (with $170 million in bets), while the probability of breaking $45,000 held at 47 % backed by $1.4 billion of wagering.
- Overall sentiment: The surge in bearish contracts reflects a broader expectation that the recent pull‑back may have more room to run, a view shared by several analysts and institutional forecasts.
Market‑Cap Impact
Bitcoin’s market capitalisation is now estimated at roughly $1.31 trillion, a loss of about $440 billion since the start of the year – roughly a 25 % decline in value. The contraction pushed BTC out of the top‑ten list of global assets, placing it behind the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) and into the 15th position worldwide, according to data from 8marketcap.
For context, the total crypto market has shed around $760 billion, a 24.5 % reduction year‑to‑date, as reported by CoinGecko.
Analyst Perspectives
- Standard Chartered: The bank’s research team projects that BTC could briefly touch $50,000 before a potential recovery toward the $100,000 mark.
- CryptoQuant: The analytics firm flagged extreme liquidity stress in USDT (Tether) on Monday, a condition reminiscent of the market bottom in 2022. The same report noted a sharp drop in USDT inflows to exchanges—from a November 2025 high of $616 million to just $27 million—suggesting a contraction in readily deployable liquidity.
- Long‑term outlook: Despite the bearish short‑term sentiment, some market participants remain optimistic. Bitcoin advocate Pierre Rochard described the asset as “the most undervalued asset in the world.” A recent Coinbase survey echoed this sentiment, with roughly 70 % of institutional investors believing BTC is undervalued when priced between $85,000 and $95,000.
Key Takeaways
| Point | Implication |
|---|---|
| Polymarket odds now heavily skewed toward sub‑$55k | Reflects growing trader confidence that the current correction could deepen. |
| Market cap down 25 % YTD | Bitcoin has slipped out of the top‑ten global assets, highlighting the magnitude of the crypto‑wide downturn. |
| Liquidity stress in USDT | Diminished stable‑coin inflows may limit the amount of capital that can flow back into crypto markets, potentially prolonging price weakness. |
| Analyst divergence | While some institutions forecast further lows, others see a buying opportunity near $55k, underscoring divergent views on Bitcoin’s role as an inflation hedge. |
| Long‑term valuation debate | Institutional surveys continue to label BTC as undervalued at higher price ranges, suggesting a possible rebound once price pressure eases. |
Outlook
The convergence of rising bearish bets on prediction markets, a shrinking market capitalisation, and stressed stable‑coin liquidity paints a cautious short‑term picture for Bitcoin. However, the asset’s historical volatility, coupled with differing long‑term valuations from analysts and institutional investors, leaves the possibility of a bounce open. Market participants will be watching upcoming macro data, regulatory developments, and on‑chain metrics—particularly stable‑coin flows—to gauge whether the current slide represents a temporary correction or a more sustained market bottom.
The information in this article is based on publicly available data from Polymarket, 8marketcap, CoinGecko, CryptoQuant, and statements from Standard Chartered, among other sources. Readers are encouraged to conduct their own due diligence before making investment decisions.
Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-below-55k-polymarket-market-cap-dip?utm_source=rss_feed&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_partner_inbound
