Bitcoin Trades Near Fair‑Value as Buyer Interest Weakens at $64K
February 24 2026
Bitcoin (BTC) has been hovering in a narrow $62,000‑$64,000 band for the past week, prompting analysts to reassess the cryptocurrency’s valuation and the strength of on‑exchange buying pressure. New on‑chain metrics and exchange order‑flow data suggest the market is edging toward its long‑term fair value, while demand from active traders remains tentative.
Valuation metrics move back toward the historical mean
Glassnode’s latest figures show the market‑value‑to‑realized‑value (MVRV) ratio – a widely watched gauge of investor profitability – has retreated from the elevated levels seen earlier this year. In the words of Glassnode analyst Chris Beamish, the ratio has “reset after a full‑blown excursion beyond one standard deviation.”
The MVRV compression signals that Bitcoin’s market cap is now more closely aligned with the price at which coins last moved on‑chain (the realized cap). Although the metric is still above the deep‑undervaluation zone that historically precedes major rallies, it does place BTC in a range that has previously offered attractive risk‑reward opportunities.
The realized capitalization itself has slipped to roughly $1.09 trillion, a decline of about $33 billion from its November‑2025 peak. Over the past 30 days the realized cap is down 2.26 %, indicating persistent outflows. Researcher Axel Adler Jr. notes that coins aged three to six months now represent 25.9 % of the total supply – the largest cohort on record. Most of these coins were bought near the top of the previous cycle and are currently “underwater,” which contributes to the defensive posture of holders.
Exchange flow shows a modest easing of selling pressure
On the exchange side, the spot cumulative volume delta (CVD) – the net difference between buy and sell orders – improved slightly to ‑$161.5 million from ‑$177.1 million. While still negative, the narrowing gap suggests that aggressive sellers are easing their grip.
At the same time, overall spot trading volume fell to $6 billion, down from $7.6 billion a week earlier. The reduction in volume points to thinner participation and a more fragmented order book, which has kept price action choppy despite the marginal improvement in CVD.
Historically, a flattening CVD during a price plateau has preceded periods where supply is absorbed and a bottom is forged. Bitcoin’s current hold near the $62‑$64 K range, combined with the CVD’s muted improvement, could indicate that sellers are losing momentum, but a decisive shift will likely require a resurgence in spot‑market participation.
What the data could mean for the next price move
- Valuation reset, not a bargain: The alignment of market cap and realized cap places Bitcoin closer to its long‑term fair value, but the asset remains above levels that would constitute a clear buying opportunity based on historical MVRV lows.
- Defensive holder stance: With a sizable portion of the supply locked in loss‑making positions, the market appears “neutrally defensive.” New capital inflows have not yet materialized in sufficient volume to push the realized cap back into positive growth.
- Cautious absorption: The slight improvement in CVD suggests that selling pressure is stabilizing, yet the decline in overall volume signals that any rebound in demand is still fragile.
- Potential trigger: A rebound in spot trading volume, paired with a continued flattening (or reversal) of CVD, could provide the catalyst for a move above $64 K and re‑ignite a longer‑term uptrend.
Key Takeaways
- MVRV ratio has normalized after a period of extreme deviation, indicating valuation is moving toward historical averages.
- Realized cap fell to $1.09 trillion, down $33 billion from its recent high; 30‑day change is –2.26 %.
- Coins aged 3‑6 months now make up ~26 % of supply, the largest cohort, many of which are in loss positions.
- Spot CVD improved modestly to –$161.5 million, reflecting a slight reduction in aggressive selling.
- Spot volume dropped to $6 billion, indicating thinner market participation and heightened price volatility.
- BTC remains in a $62‑$64 K range, a zone that may act as a short‑term support if buying pressure can be rekindled.
The coming weeks will be crucial in determining whether Bitcoin can transition from a defensive, fair‑value phase to a more bullish trajectory. Traders and investors should watch for a pickup in spot volume and a continued flattening of the CVD as potential early signs of renewed demand.
The information presented here is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. All market participants should conduct their own research and consider the risks associated with cryptocurrency trading.
Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/key-bitcoin-onchain-signal-may-mark-btc-s-next-demand-revival?utm_source=rss_feed&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_partner_inbound
