Bitcoin’s Weekly “Death Cross” Signals Continued Bearish Pressure – Analysts Call for a Major Bullish Catalyst
March 4 2026
A new technical pattern forming on Bitcoin’s weekly chart could keep the cryptocurrency in a bear market for the foreseeable future, unless a sizable positive catalyst emerges to reverse the trend, according to a recent price analysis from material indicators firm Material Indicators.
What the “death cross” means
A death cross occurs when a shorter‑term moving average (MA) falls below a longer‑term MA, signalling that recent price momentum is weaker than the longer‑term trend. In Bitcoin’s case, the 21‑week simple moving average (SMA) is set to dip under the 100‑week SMA during the upcoming weekly candle. Historically, such a crossover has preceded further downside moves in the market.
Keith Alan, co‑founder of Material Indicators, explained that while the weekly cross is still pending, the bearish signal is “a precursor to the next leg down unless we get a major bullish catalyst.” The analyst warned that without an external driver—be it regulatory clarity, institutional inflow, or a macro‑economic shift—the death cross could cement the current bear market.
Current price dynamics
Bitcoin rallied to a monthly high of $73,019 at the opening bell on Wall Street, an uptick that coincided with heightened geopolitical tension in the Middle East. The surge sparked optimism about a possible bull market resurgence and even the prospect of new all‑time highs.
However, the rally appears fragile. On the daily chart, Bitcoin is hovering near several key technical levels:
| Level | Approx. Price | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| 21‑day SMA | $67,550 | Near‑term support; price must stay above to avoid a short‑term squeeze. |
| 50‑day SMA | $76,350 | Psychological resistance; a break above could open a short‑term upside. |
| 21‑week SMA | $88,000 | Long‑term trend line; still well above current price. |
| 100‑day SMA | $87,300 | Another long‑term benchmark; price remains far below. |
| Timescape Levels | $71,300 & $78,300 | Proprietary pivot zones used by analysts to gauge momentum shifts. |
| Psychological Resistance | ~$75,000 | Round‑number barrier that often triggers selling pressure. |
Alan noted that a “support test, sooner rather than later, would be healthy,” but cautioned that market conditions could make such a test difficult to achieve. The longer the price lingers below the 21‑day SMA, the more likely the rally will lose durability.
Outlook and risk considerations
- Bearish bias remains: Even if Bitcoin holds above the 21‑day SMA for now, the imminent weekly death cross suggests that bearish momentum may dominate in the short term.
- Potential for a bounce: Should price breach the 50‑day SMA and surpass the $75k‑$78k range, it could trigger a temporary corrective rally. Yet, without a substantial external driver, such moves may be short‑lived.
- Bottom expectations: Market analysts continue to project a bear‑market floor around $50,000, a level that many see as a crucial test for future upside.
Key takeaways
- Weekly death cross pending – The 21‑week SMA crossing under the 100‑week SMA next week could act as a technical warning sign for further declines.
- Short‑term resistance at $75k–$78k – Overcoming these zones would be necessary for any meaningful rally, but they also represent strong psychological and technical barriers.
- Major bullish catalyst required – Analysts agree that only a significant positive event—such as major institutional adoption, regulatory clarity, or macro‑economic improvement—could offset the bearish technical setup.
- Watch the 21‑day SMA – Maintaining price above this shorter‑term average is critical to avoid a rapid short‑term squeeze.
- Long‑term bearish floor near $50k – Market consensus still places the bear‑market bottom in the low‑$50,000 range.
Disclaimer
The analysis presented here is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile, and all trading decisions entail risk. Readers are encouraged to conduct their own due diligence and consult a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions. Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information contained in this article.
Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-still-due-next-leg-down-72k-btc-price-precedes-death-cross?utm_source=rss_feed&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_partner_inbound
