Buying Bitcoin? Hold It for at Least Three Years to Reduce the Risk of Losses
By [Your Name] – Cointelegraph
Key takeaways
- Three‑year horizon: Historical data show that holding Bitcoin (BTC) for a minimum of three years limits the probability of a negative return to 0.7 %.
- Longer horizons are safer: The loss probability drops to 0.2 % over five years and disappears completely over a decade.
- Short‑term exposure is risky: Investors who sell within a year face a loss probability above 20 %, climbing to nearly 50 % for intraday trades.
- Realised price advantage: BTC bought three‑to‑five years ago is realised at roughly $34,800, well below today’s price of about $65,000, delivering close to 90 % profit on average.
- Future price scenarios: Forecasts for 2026‑2027 range from $50,000 in a bearish “final capitulation” view to $150,000 in more optimistic models, with a common bullish band of $100,000‑$150,000.
Bitwise Europe’s long‑term holding study
André Dragosch, head of research at Bitwise Europe, analysed every possible rolling entry point for Bitcoin from its first trade on 17 July 2010 through 11 February 2026. The study measured the probability that a holder would finish the chosen horizon in the red.
- Three‑year window: Only 0.7 % of the examined entry points resulted in a loss. In practical terms, virtually every investor who stayed invested for three years or more ended up ahead.
- Five‑year window: The likelihood of a loss fell further to 0.2 %.
- Ten‑year window: No three‑year roll‑forward produced a negative return, indicating that a decade‑long commitment historically guarantees profit.
The analysis underscores a clear pattern: the longer the holding period, the lower the downside risk.
Short‑term holding risks
Contrastingly, the data paint a stark picture for shorter horizons:
| Holding period | Probability of being underwater |
|---|---|
| Intraday | 47.1 % |
| 1 week | 44.7 % |
| 1 month | 43.2 % |
| 1 year | 24.3 % |
These figures suggest that traders seeking quick flips or day‑trading profits confront a near‑50 % chance of ending the period with a loss, a risk that only halves after a full year.
Realised price by holding age
Glassnode’s realised‑price heat map further illustrates the advantage of patience. As of the latest snapshot (mid‑February 2026), Bitcoin’s spot price hovered around $65,000, roughly 50 % below its October 2025 peak. Yet the realised price for the three‑to‑five‑year cohort sits near $34,800—a gap that translates into an average ~90 % unrealised profit for those who bought during that window.
Conversely, more recent cohorts are still underwater:
- 6‑12‑month holders entered at an average cost of $101,250, currently facing an unrealised loss of about 35 %.
- 12‑24‑month holders have a lower cost basis of $78,150, resulting in an approximate 15 % loss.
The disparity reinforces the study’s central thesis: the longer the holding period, the smaller the drawdown during market corrections.
Outlook for Bitcoin’s price (2026‑2027)
While the historical data highlight the safety of a multi‑year horizon, analysts remain divided on the future price trajectory:
| Analyst / Institution | Outlook | Notable assumptions |
|---|---|---|
| Bernstein | $150,000 by 2026 | Modest net outflows (~7 %) from spot BTC ETFs despite a 50 % price dip; they describe the current slump as a “crisis of confidence.” |
| Standard Chartered | $50,000 low, then $100,000 by end‑2026 | Anticipates a “final capitulation” phase driven by weak ETF inflows and a tougher macro backdrop, followed by a recovery. |
| Timothy Peterson (historical average‑return model) | $122,000 early 2027 | Uses trailing positive‑month metrics and put‑option payoff data to project a high‑probability upward move. |
| General bullish consensus | $100k‑$150k for 2026‑2027 | Derived from multiple forecasting models that cluster in this range under favourable macro conditions. |
The wide spread reflects lingering uncertainty about macroeconomic pressures, regulatory developments, and the evolving role of institutional products such as Bitcoin ETFs.
What the data mean for investors
- Patience pays – The Bitwise analysis suggests that a three‑year minimum significantly reduces the odds of loss, with risk virtually eliminated after ten years.
- Avoid “quick‑profit” mentality – Short‑term traders face a substantially higher chance of negative returns, especially during volatile market phases.
- Cost‑basis management – Recent entrants (within the last 12‑24 months) are more exposed to the current correction. Adding to positions at lower price levels could improve their long‑term outlook, but only if they are prepared to hold for several years.
- Forecast awareness – While bullish price targets exceed $100,000, downside scenarios still exist. Investors should align exposure with their risk tolerance and time horizon, rather than chasing short‑term price spikes.
Bottom line
Historical evidence from Bitwise Europe demonstrates that Bitcoin’s most reliable path to profit lies in a long‑term commitment of at least three years. The probability of ending a three‑year holding period in the red is less than one per cent, and it essentially disappears after a decade. Short‑term market participants remain vulnerable, with loss probabilities hovering around 25 % or higher.
For anyone considering a new BTC purchase, the prudent approach—according to the data—remains a “buy‑and‑hold” strategy tied to a multi‑year horizon, complemented by a clear understanding of the price outlook and an awareness of personal risk tolerance.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. All trading and investment decisions involve risk; readers should conduct their own due diligence before acting. Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of the information presented.
Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/buying-bitcoin-hold-for-at-least-three-years-to-avoid-losses-data-says?utm_source=rss_feed&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_partner_inbound
