Token‑Launch Timing Has Little Impact on Long‑Run Performance, Finds Dragonfly Capital
By [Your Name] – February 17 2026
A new quantitative study by Dragonfly Capital’s managing partner Haseeb Qureshi challenges a long‑standing assumption in the crypto‑venture community: that the market cycle at which a token is launched can materially dictate its future success. By examining every Binance‑listed token whose launch was publicly announced, the research concludes that whether a token debuts in a bull or a bear market has, at best, a marginal effect on its subsequent returns.
The Study at a Glance
- Sample: 202 tokens listed on Binance (the world’s largest centralized exchange by volume). Stablecoins, wrapped assets and other non‑independent tokens were excluded.
- Segmentation: 101 tokens launched during bullish periods, 33 during bearish periods; the remaining tokens fell in “neutral” windows that were not the focus of the primary comparison.
- Performance Metric: Median annualised return from the launch date to the present.
Results:
- Bull‑market launches posted a median annualised gain of roughly 1.3 %.
- Bear‑market launches posted a median annualised loss of about ‑1.3 %.
Statistical testing shows no significant difference between the two groups, indicating that timing alone does not confer a measurable advantage.
Why Timing Might Not Matter
Qureshi emphasises that the modest performance gap disappears when the data are reshuffled by other variables such as token age, sector, or the size of the initial offering. “There is no statistically significant difference in performance between tokens launched in bull markets versus bear markets,” he wrote in his analysis. He adds that factors like exchange listing fees, marketing spend, and talent costs often rise during market up‑swings, which could offset any headline‑grabbing demand that a bull market provides.
Contextualising the Findings
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Survival is the Primary hurdle – Of the roughly 24 000 tokens ever created since 2014, more than 14 000 are now defunct, according to a 2024 CoinGecko report. The Dragonfly study only captures tokens that succeeded in reaching Binance; projects that folded before securing a major exchange are omitted, skewing the observable success rate upward.
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Revenue generation remains scarce – A separate investigation by 5Money and Storible, cited by The Defiant, found that about 95 % of nearly 5 000 crypto projects earn less than $1 000 per month, even among those valued at over $1 bn.
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Bear markets may offer hidden benefits – Qureshi notes that a downturn can lower the cost of talent, reduce competition for exchange slots, and provide a less crowded marketing landscape. These “soft” advantages are not captured in pure price‑performance metrics but could influence a founder’s strategic calculus.
- Execution over timing – The study points to Solana’s launch in March 2020—just days after a sharp market crash—as a case where rapid development and community building mattered far more than the macro‑environment.
Key Takeaways for Founders and Investors
| Insight | Implication |
|---|---|
| Launch timing ≈ neutral | Focus resources on product development, community, and regulatory compliance rather than waiting for a “perfect” market cycle. |
| Cost structures shift with cycles | Bear‑market environments often feature cheaper listing fees and talent, potentially improving runway. |
| Survival odds are low | Early‑stage projects should adopt rigorous risk‑management and diversification strategies; token listing alone is not a guarantee of longevity. |
| Revenue generation is rare | Even successful tokens rarely translate into sustainable cash flow; business models must be clear beyond token speculation. |
Looking Ahead
While Dragonfly’s analysis dampens the narrative that “launching in a bull market will guarantee upside,” it does not settle every strategic question. Market sentiment still influences investor appetite, and a token’s utility, governance design, and ecosystem partnerships will likely continue to dictate long‑term viability. As the crypto landscape matures, founders may find that the optimal launch window is less about macro‑timing and more about aligning operational readiness with the right set of partners and community supporters.
The full research dossier is available at Dragonfly Capital’s token‑timing report.
Source: https://thedefiant.io/news/tokens/crypto-token-launch-timing-research-dragonfly-qureshi
