Dune Digest 028 – Market Highlights, Stablecoin Moves, and RWA‑Fund Updates

September 2025 – A week‑long snapshot of on‑chain activity and regulatory milestones that could reshape the U.S. prediction‑market landscape, drive the next wave of wallet‑native stablecoins, and accelerate the tokenisation of real‑world assets.

1. Polymarket clears a major regulatory hurdle

• CFTC no‑action letter – On 3 September the Commodity Futures Trading Commission issued a no‑action letter that effectively green‑lights Polymarket’s $112 million purchase of QCX, a CFTC‑licensed derivatives exchange. The clearance paves the way for a fully regulated U.S. relaunch of Polymarket’s market‑making platform.
• Valuation boost – Sources close to the deal say fresh financing could lift Polymarket’s enterprise value to roughly $9 billion–$10 billion, a ten‑fold jump from the $1 billion valuation reported in June.
• New earnings‑prediction markets – A joint product with Stocktwits debuted on 15 September, allowing shareholders to hedge earnings‑release risk, analysts to capture real‑time odds for model refinement, and forecasters to benchmark performance via transparent win‑rate statistics.
• Chainlink integration – A 12 September integration with the Chainlink network is slated to accelerate market resolution and improve the credibility of outcome data.

Takeaway: The regulatory clearance and sizable financing injection position Polymarket to compete more directly with established U.S. venues such as Kalshi, though market‑share dynamics will depend on how quickly its earnings‑prediction products scale.

2. Polymarket vs. Kalshi – volume and open‑interest dynamics

• Market‑share snapshot – Tracker data for the week of 11 – 17 September shows Kalshi handling about 62 % of total prediction‑market volume, while Polymarket accounts for roughly 37 %. Kalshi’s weekly volume topped $500 million, compared with Polymarket’s $430 million.
• Open‑interest (OI) ratios – Kalshi posted an average OI of $189 million on $642 million of weekly volume (OI/Vol ≈ 0.29). Polymarket’s OI averaged $164 million on $430 million of volume (OI/Vol ≈ 0.38).
• Interpretation – The higher OI‑to‑volume ratio on Polymarket suggests that positions stay open longer, reflecting its longer‑dated contracts where collateral is locked for extended periods. Kalshi’s lower ratio points to faster turnover, consistent with its short‑cycle markets that resolve within hours or days.

Implication: Polymarket’s “stickier” positions may be a double‑edged sword—offering deeper liquidity for certain products but potentially limiting velocity. As the earnings‑prediction markets gain traction and settle more quickly, Polymarket’s OI/Vol ratio could converge toward Kalshi’s faster‑turnover profile.

3. MetaMask launches its first wallet‑native stablecoin: mUSD

• Product overview – On 15 September MetaMask introduced “MetaMask USD” (mUSD), a stablecoin issued by Bridge (the stablecoin arm of Stripe) and minted through the M0 protocol. The token is initially available on Ethereum and the Layer‑2 network Linea.
• Backing and compliance – mUSD is fully collateralised 1:1 with short‑duration U.S. Treasury securities, held under Bridge’s compliance framework.
• Distribution advantage – By embedding mUSD directly into MetaMask’s default user interface, the launch creates a native on‑ramp that bypasses external listings, potentially accelerating adoption among the wallet’s millions of users.
• Supply snapshot – Circulating supply sits at roughly $53 million, with about 86 % residing on Linea, a result of incentive structures that allocate a large share of Etherex liquidity‑provider rewards to mUSD pairs.
• Market context – The stablecoin launch arrives amid a broader 2025 up‑turn: the sector’s total market‑cap reached near $287 billion in August, driven by enhanced DeFi utility, clearer regulatory guidance, and growing cross‑border payment use cases.

Key point: The wallet‑native model represents a new competitive moat—owning the “last‑mile” distribution channel could enable MetaMask to capture a meaningful slice of the fast‑growing stablecoin ecosystem.

4. Circle expands USDC to the Hyperliquid ecosystem

• Roll‑out details – Circle began issuing native USDC on Hyperliquid’s stack, starting with the HyperEVM execution layer and later extending to HyperCore. Transfers will use CCTP v2 for mint‑and‑burn operations.
• Liquidity baseline – Initial USDC liquidity is around $12 million, giving it roughly a 3.5 % share of the HyperEVM stablecoin market, which is still dominated by USDT0 ($193 million, ~55 %) and thBILL ($16 million, ~17.5 %).
• Strategic fit – The move aligns Circle’s fiat‑on‑ramp capabilities with Hyperliquid’s perpetual‑contract engine, reinforcing a broader ecosystem partnership that includes token buy‑backs (HYPE), validator incentives, and developer toolkits.
• Competitive pressure – Native Markets is set to launch a USDH stablecoin on the same stack, positioning the two projects in a head‑to‑head battle for collateral share.

Implication: Circle’s entry adds a trusted, highly liquid stablecoin to a market that is still relatively nascent on HyperEVM, but it will have to contend with emerging native alternatives that may benefit from tighter integration and lower latency.

5. Base explores a network token

• Shift in strategy – After previously rejecting a native token, the Base team is now evaluating a token that could aid decentralisation and expand incentives for builders and creators.
• Economic rationale – A token could formalise reward mechanisms (e.g., points, airdrops, governance) and capitalize on the layer‑2’s strong economic performance—sequencer profit exceeded $5.9 million in August.
• Guiding principles – The team emphasised three commitments: staying aligned with Ethereum, cooperating with U.S. regulators, and maintaining an open‑source development model. No concrete design or timeline has been disclosed.

Takeaway: While still early‑stage, the prospect of a Base token signals a broader trend among L2s to monetise network effects and solidify community ownership, provided the tokenomics reinforce alignment with the Ethereum mainnet rather than short‑term speculation.

6. Real‑World Asset (RWA) vertical – new tokenised funds

Since the publication of Dune’s most recent RWA report, four notable tokenised products have launched:

Sector dynamics: Tokenised money‑market funds continue to dominate RWA allocations, appealing to institutional investors with large ticket sizes and limited participant counts. Conversely, newer credit, commodity, and tokenised equity products are seeing broader retail participation, with smaller average holdings and a more diverse investor base.

Strategic insight: The scaling of money‑market‑style RWAs reinforces the view that liquidity and regulatory clarity are prerequisites for institutional adoption, while the emergence of retail‑focused products suggests the vertical is beginning to climb the yield curve, offering higher‑risk, higher‑return options to a wider audience.

Key Takeaways

1. Regulatory clearance – Polymarket’s CFTC no‑action letter removes a major barrier to U.S. operations and could trigger a valuation surge, positioning the platform as a serious competitor to Kalshi.
2. Volume vs. stickiness – Kalshi dominates total weekly volume, but Polymarket’s higher open‑interest ratio indicates deeper, longer‑duration market participation; future product releases may shift this balance.
3. Wallet‑native stablecoins – MetaMask’s mUSD demonstrates how embedding a dollar‑pegged asset within a self‑custodial wallet can create a powerful distribution channel, especially on emerging L2s such as Linea.
4. Stablecoin competition on L2s – Circle’s USDC entry into Hyperliquid adds a globally recognised stablecoin to a fragmented market, but new native issuers like USDH will test its uptake.
5. Base’s token contemplation – The move signals a broader willingness among L2s to employ native tokens for governance and incentive alignment, provided they stay tethered to Ethereum’s security and regulatory framework.
6. RWA tokenisation maturing – Money‑market‑style funds remain the anchor for institutional capital, whereas credit and commodity tokenised products are beginning to attract retail interest, hinting at a more diversified RWA ecosystem.

The information presented reflects publicly available on‑chain data and announced product releases. It does not constitute investment advice; readers should conduct their own diligence before acting on any of the developments discussed.

Source: https://dune.com/blog/dune-digest-028