Not All Bitcoin Wallets Face the Same Quantum Threat, Galaxy Digital Says
Galaxy Digital research analyst Will Owens argues that the quantum‑computing risk to Bitcoin is real but limited to wallets whose public keys are exposed on‑chain. Development teams are already working on mitigations, though the path to a network‑wide upgrade remains uncertain.
Quantum computers and the private‑key problem
In a new research note released on Thursday, Galaxy Digital’s Will Owens outlined how a sufficiently powerful quantum computer could, in theory, reverse‑engineer a Bitcoin private key from its corresponding public key. If an attacker succeeded, they could sign transactions as the rightful owner and move the funds.
Owens stresses that this scenario only becomes feasible when the public key associated with an address is publicly visible. “The majority of wallets today do not expose their public keys, so they are not immediately vulnerable,” he wrote. He identified two exposure patterns:
| Exposure type | How the public key becomes visible |
|---|---|
| Persistent exposure | The public key is already stored on‑chain (e.g., legacy pay‑to‑pubkey‑hash (P2PKH) addresses). |
| Spend‑time exposure | The public key is revealed only when a transaction is broadcast (e.g., pay‑to‑witness‑pubkey‑hash (P2WPKH) or other SegWit formats). |
Only funds associated with the first category can be compromised without the owner initiating a spend. In the second case, an attacker would need to act between the moment the public key is revealed and the confirmation of the transaction – a much narrower window.
The wider debate on quantum risk
The prospect of quantum attacks on cryptocurrency has long circulated in the community, often framed as an “inflection point” that could reshape the security model of proof‑of‑work networks. Critics argue the threat is exaggerated because practical quantum computers capable of breaking elliptic‑curve cryptography are still decades away. Some even suggest that traditional financial institutions will fall victim to quantum attacks before Bitcoin does.
Owens acknowledges the timeline uncertainty but points out that the risk is already being taken seriously by developers. He cited an increase in quantum‑related proposals since late 2025, countering claims that the Bitcoin Core team is ignoring the issue. “The pace of concrete proposals has accelerated meaningfully,” he wrote, highlighting initiatives such as the soft‑fork BIP 360 and other post‑quantum signatures under active review.
Development activity and proposed mitigations
- BIP 360 – A soft‑fork proposal introducing post‑quantum cryptographic primitives alongside existing secp256k1 keys.
- Hybrid address schemes – Combining classic and quantum‑resistant keys in a single address to allow a gradual migration.
- SegWit as a stop‑gap – Analyst Willy Woo previously argued that keeping Bitcoin in SegWit wallets reduces exposure because the public key is only disclosed at spend time, narrowing the attack surface.
According to Owens, these efforts are not merely theoretical. “The ecosystem now has a concrete and maturing set of proposals spanning the full problem surface. They are being actively developed, reviewed, and debated by seasoned contributors,” he noted.
Governance hurdles
Even if a technically sound post‑quantum upgrade emerges, implementing it will face Bitcoin’s unique governance model: there is no central authority, CEO, or board to mandate a change. Adoption will rely on consensus among miners, node operators, exchanges, and custodians.
Owens remains optimistic that the universal nature of the threat aligns incentives across the network. “Every honest participant has a direct financial stake in protecting the ledger’s integrity, which could smooth the path to a coordinated upgrade,” he said.
Key takeaways
- Quantum risk is contingent on public‑key exposure. Legacy addresses that publish their public keys on‑chain are the primary concern; SegWit‑style wallets reduce immediate vulnerability.
- Developer activity is intensifying. Multiple post‑quantum proposals have entered the Bitcoin improvement process, countering perceptions of inactivity.
- Governance remains the biggest obstacle. Without a centralized decision‑maker, any network‑wide change will depend on broad consensus and coordinated signaling.
- Investors should stay informed, not alarmed. The threat is real but recognized, and the most capable participants in the ecosystem are already working on solutions.
The analysis reflects findings from Galaxy Digital’s research and publicly available discussions within the Bitcoin development community. Readers are encouraged to follow ongoing proposal reviews and to adopt wallet practices—such as using SegWit or other hybrid solutions—that limit public‑key exposure.
Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/quantum-risk-bitcoin-wallets-not-all-vulnerable?utm_source=rss_feed&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_partner_inbound
