Standard Chartered Reinforces $2 T Stablecoin Outlook, Scales Back Near‑Term T‑Bill Demand Forecast
London, 23 Feb 2026 – In a research note circulated to clients on Monday, Standard Chartered’s fixed‑income and crypto research teams reaffirmed their long‑term projection that the global USD‑stablecoin market will expand to roughly $2 trillion by the close of 2028. The bank, however, trimmed its forecast for short‑term U.S. Treasury bill (T‑bill) demand that is expected to be generated by stablecoins, citing a slowdown in recent market activity.
Stablecoins on a $2 trillion Trajectory
Geoffrey Kendrick, the bank’s senior analyst for stablecoins, and U.S. rates strategist John Davies highlighted that despite the sector’s recent stagnation – the aggregate market cap of dollar‑denominated stablecoins has hovered around $300 billion for several months – the fundamentals that underpin growth remain intact. The analysts point to:
- Regulatory clarity – The passage of the U.S. GENIUS Act in 2025, which provides a clearer legal framework for stablecoin issuers, is expected to reduce compliance uncertainty and encourage institutional adoption.
- Liquidity demand – Large‑scale firms and financial institutions continue to hold stablecoins as a bridge between crypto assets and traditional fiat, a use‑case that would drive demand for safe‑haven, short‑duration Treasury securities.
Accordingly, Standard Chartered maintains its view that the cumulative market cap of USD‑stablecoins could hit $2 trillion by 2028, a level that would represent a six‑fold increase from current figures.
Revised Estimate for Treasury Bill Demand
Earlier in 2025, the bank had projected that stablecoins would create up to $1.6 trillion of fresh demand for T‑bills by 2028. The latest analysis cuts that estimate to a range of $0.8 – $1 trillion, reflecting:
- Recent market softness – Weak price action across the broader crypto market has limited new inflows into stablecoins, reducing the immediate need for cash‑equivalent reserves.
- Evolving Treasury policy – While the Treasury has signalled that private‑sector appetite for short‑term debt remains strong, the bank notes that the expected “excess demand” from stablecoin reserves may not be as large as previously thought.
Nevertheless, the researchers argue that this still‑substantial demand could influence the Treasury’s issuance strategy. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, in remarks earlier this month, described the GENIUS Act as a potential “important feature of financing the U.S. government.” Moreover, the Treasury’s quarterly refunding announcement cited rising private‑sector interest in T‑bills, a trend that could be amplified by stablecoin‑related holdings.
The note also references the Federal Reserve’s recent decision to shift reserve‑management purchases (RMPs) away from maturing mortgage‑backed securities (MBS) toward Treasury bills. Combined with private stablecoin demand, the analysts warn that “T‑bills could become overly scarce,” prompting the Treasury to consider enlarging future issuances.
Bitcoin Outlook – A Parallel Adjustment
Standard Chartered’s crypto research unit also updated its Bitcoin price targets. The bank previously projected Bitcoin (BTC) could reach $500,000 by 2028. After a series of market corrections and outflows from its own Bitcoin ETF, the target for 2026 has been lowered from $150,000 to $100,000, with a downside scenario that sees BTC testing $50,000 before a possible recovery later in the decade.
Analyst Takeaways
| Key Point | Implication |
|---|---|
| Stablecoin market cap to $2 trillion by 2028 | Signals continued institutional adoption and supports the view of stablecoins as a de‑facto “cash” layer for crypto markets. |
| T‑bill demand from stablecoins revised to $0.8‑$1 trillion | Indicates a more moderate, but still material, impact on U.S. Treasury financing; the Treasury may still increase issuance to meet demand. |
| GENIUS Act provides regulatory certainty | Reduces structural risk for stablecoin issuers, likely attracting more corporate treasuries and fintechs to hold stablecoins. |
| Federal Reserve’s shift to T‑bill RMPs | Could amplify the scarcity of short‑term Treasury supply, potentially lifting yields if demand outpaces supply. |
| Bitcoin price target trimmed | Reflects heightened market volatility and a more cautious outlook for crypto assets outside the stablecoin niche. |
Outlook
Standard Chartered’s reaffirmed long‑run stablecoin estimate underscores the growing acceptance of algorithmic and fiat‑backed digital dollars as a functional component of the global financial system. While short‑term Treasury demand may not be as lofty as earlier forecasts, the interplay between regulatory developments, Federal Reserve balance‑sheet actions, and private‑sector liquidity needs could still shape the issuance calendar for U.S. debt.
Investors and policymakers should monitor the evolving stablecoin ecosystem for signs of renewed inflows, particularly as the GENIUS Act’s compliance framework becomes operational. Simultaneously, the Treasury’s response—whether through increased auction sizes or alternative financing tools—will be a critical factor in maintaining market equilibrium for short‑duration sovereign debt.
Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/standard-chartered-2t-stablecoin-forecast-2028-t-bill-demand-trim?utm_source=rss_feed&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_partner_inbound
