AI‑Driven Deflation Could Lift Bitcoin to $11 Million by 2036, Strive Analyst Predicts
March 3 2026
A new research note from Strive Capital argues that the rapid productivity gains enabled by artificial intelligence (AI) will generate sustained deflationary pressure across the global economy. According to the report, this “AI deflation engine” could force central banks to keep expanding the money supply, creating a macro‑environment that propels Bitcoin (BTC) to a price of roughly $11 million per coin in the first quarter of 2036.
The thesis behind the $11 million forecast
Joe Burnett, Strive’s vice‑president of Bitcoin strategy, outlines a chain of causal links in his Monday‑published analysis:
- AI‑powered automation reduces costs – Faster, cheaper production of goods and services pushes consumer prices down, a classic deflationary signal.
- Debt‑heavy fiat systems become strained – In a world where wages and asset prices fall while nominal debt levels remain fixed, credit markets face heightened stress.
- Policy response is continued monetary easing – To avoid a deflationary spiral, central banks and fiscal authorities are likely to inject liquidity, expanding monetary aggregates such as M2.
- Scarce digital assets gain appeal – With more money chasing fewer truly scarce stores of value, Bitcoin, as the premier “verifiably scarce” asset, benefits from heightened demand.
Burnett calls the resulting dynamic an “AI deflation engine” that, together with an emerging “digital credit” ecosystem, could reshape the supply‑demand balance for Bitcoin.
Key assumptions driving the base case
The projection rests on a set of aggressive but explicit assumptions:
| Assumption | Detail |
|---|---|
| Bitcoin’s share of global financial assets | Rises from roughly 0.2 % today to 12 % by 2036. |
| Global wealth growth | Compounds at 7 % per year through 2036. |
| Resulting market cap | Bitcoin’s market capitalization would climb to about $230 trillion, a 176‑fold increase over current levels. |
| Price target | With the above market cap, a per‑coin price of $11 million is implied for Q1 2036. |
These premises imply that Bitcoin would become the dominant global reserve asset, dwarfing current monetary aggregates. As Nic Puckrin, co‑founder of Coin Bureau, notes, the forecast would make Bitcoin roughly ten times larger than the current US M2 money supply, four times the size of the US equity market, and nearly double today’s global GDP.
Growth dynamics and historical context
A $11 million price tag would require a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of about 53 % over the 10‑year horizon. While this exceeds the average 60 % CAGR Bitcoin posted between 2015 and 2024, analysts caution that scaling from a $50 billion to a $230 trillion market cap may dampen momentum. Larger market capitalizations tend to attract more institutional scrutiny, liquidity constraints, and regulatory attention, all of which could temper the growth rate.
The “digital credit” catalyst
Burnett also highlights a nascent financing structure he terms digital credit. Companies such as Strategy, the world’s largest corporate Bitcoin holder, are issuing publicly traded securities that are backed by sizable Bitcoin balance sheets. These instruments allow investors to earn dollar‑denominated yields while providing the issuers with fresh capital to acquire additional Bitcoin.
According to Burnett’s model, this creates a reflexive loop:
- Higher Bitcoin holdings increase the supply of digital‑credit securities.
- Investors seeking yield allocate capital to those securities, effectively channeling money into Bitcoin.
- The growing Bitcoin base further fuels demand for digital‑credit products, completing the cycle.
If the feedback mechanism scales, it could reinforce Bitcoin’s role as a “credit‑based” store of value, complementing the macro‑deflationary forces outlined above.
How the projection compares with other bullish forecasts
- ARK Invest (2025) – Bull case price target of $1.5 million for Bitcoin by 2030; bear case of $300 k.
- Various analysts (2024‑2025) – Most bullish scenarios cap Bitcoin’s 2035‑2036 price in the low‑to‑mid‑$1 million range.
Burnett’s $11 million estimate is therefore an outlier, representing a ten‑fold increase over the most optimistic mainstream forecasts.
Potential risks and counterpoints
| Risk | Description |
|---|---|
| Policy divergence | If central banks shift toward tighter monetary stances in response to inflationary pressures elsewhere, the liquidity boost Burnett anticipates may not materialize. |
| Regulatory clamp‑down | Stricter rules on crypto‑related credit products or on Bitcoin mining could hamper the digital‑credit flywheel. |
| Technological disruption | While AI is expected to drive deflation, breakthroughs in alternative “scarce” digital assets or new monetary frameworks could dilute Bitcoin’s unique positioning. |
| Market saturation | A 176‑fold increase in market cap may encounter liquidity constraints, leading to price volatility and slower growth. |
Key takeaways
- AI‑induced deflation could pressure fiat systems to maintain accommodative monetary policies, boosting demand for scarce assets like Bitcoin.
- Burnett’s base case assumes Bitcoin will capture 12 % of global financial assets, implying a $230 trillion market cap and a $11 million price by Q1 2036.
- The projection hinges on robust wealth growth (7 % CAGR) and the emergence of digital‑credit instruments that link traditional yield demand to Bitcoin accumulation.
- The implied 53 % CAGR is aggressive but not without precedent; however, scaling challenges and regulatory risk could temper the trajectory.
- Compared with other bullish forecasts (e.g., ARK Invest’s $1.5 million target for 2030), the Strive outlook is markedly more optimistic, reflecting a “best‑case” scenario underpinned by specific macro‑technological assumptions.
The analysis above reflects publicly available information and the author’s interpretation of the Strive report. Readers are encouraged to conduct their own due diligence before forming investment decisions.
Cointelegraph adheres to its editorial policy of independent, transparent journalism. All figures are based on the sources cited and are subject to change as market conditions evolve.
Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/strive-joe-burnett-ai-deflation-bitcoin-11m-2036-forecast?utm_source=rss_feed&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_partner_inbound
