Bitcoin Nearing Cycle Bottom as VanEck CEO Highlights End of Four‑Year Halving Phase
The head of VanEck’s crypto division says the market is likely transitioning from a prolonged bear phase and could see a gradual upturn in 2026.
Overview
Jan van Eck, chief executive officer of VanEck’s cryptocurrency business, told CNBC on Monday that Bitcoin (BTC) appears to be approaching a bottom. He linked the current price weakness to the final year of the four‑year “halving” cycle, a pattern that has historically shaped Bitcoin’s price movements more than any fundamental shift in the network itself.
Halving Cycle Context
Bitcoin’s protocol reduces the block reward for miners by 50 % roughly every four years, a mechanism designed to cap the total supply at 21 million coins. VanEck’s CEO emphasized that this supply‑side shock has been the dominant driver of price action over the past several months. “Historically we see three years of gains followed by a sharp correction in the fourth year. 2026 marks that fourth year, which explains the current bear market,” he said. “We are now seeing signs that the bottom is forming.”
Market Reaction
At the time of the interview, BTC was trading around $68,400, up about 2.6 % in the preceding 24 hours and 7.6 % over the prior week, according to CoinGecko data. The modest rally coincides with heightened geopolitical tension after recent U.S. and Israeli air strikes on Iran, which have sparked concerns about the stability of traditional banking channels in the region.
VanEck’s van Eck suggested that this turmoil may be contributing to the short‑term price lift, as crypto payment rails become an attractive alternative for moving funds in jurisdictions where the banking system is perceived as unreliable. “If you need to transfer money in a region like the Middle East, crypto offers a more resilient conduit than local banks,” he observed.
Diverging Views on the Cycle
The relevance of the four‑year pattern has been debated throughout the past year. Some analysts argue that rising institutional demand—particularly from Bitcoin exchange‑traded funds (ETFs), a weakening U.S. dollar, and a wave of favorable regulations—could diminish the impact of halving events. Others maintain that supply constraints remain a primary catalyst, especially as the next halving is scheduled for 2028.
Analyst Takeaways
| Key Point | Implication |
|---|---|
| Halving‑driven price dynamics | Expectation of a modest recovery in 2026, followed by a new upward trend as the next halving approaches. |
| Current price floor | BTC appears to be stabilising near $68k, suggesting the deepest part of the bearish phase may be concluding. |
| Geopolitical influence | Regional conflicts can temporarily boost crypto usage, but these effects are likely short‑lived and not fundamental to price direction. |
| Institutional demand | Growing ETF inflows and regulatory clarity could smooth future cycles, potentially reducing the amplitude of halving‑related corrections. |
Outlook
VanEck’s assessment points to a transition phase rather than an immediate breakout. While the price floor seems to be solidifying, broader market sentiment will likely remain cautious until clearer macro signals emerge. Investors should monitor the upcoming halving event in 2028, as well as continued institutional participation, to gauge whether the historical three‑year rally pattern will resume.
The information above reflects statements made by Jan van Eck during a CNBC interview on March 2, 2026, and incorporates market data from CoinGecko. Readers are encouraged to conduct independent verification.
Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-forming-bottom-vaneck-ceo?utm_source=rss_feed&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_partner_inbound
