Why XRP Spot Buying Is Soaring While Futures Open Interest Slumps
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Image: Ripple (XRP) – source: CryptoPotato
Overview
The Ripple token (XRP) is experiencing an unusual market split: spot‑market purchases have surged dramatically, while activity in the futures market is contracting. Data from the exchange Bitrue, analytics firm CryptoQuant, and on‑chain monitoring platforms paint a picture of strong institutional appetite for the underlying asset, coupled with a retreat of leveraged traders.
Spot‑Market Activity: A 212 % Jump
On February 26, Bitrue announced that the volume of XRP bought on its platform rose by more than double compared with the previous week, recording a 212 % increase in spot‑buy orders. The exchange noted that buy orders outnumbered sell orders by a margin of over two‑to‑one.
The catalyst cited by Bitrue is the continuing flow of capital into newly launched XRP exchange‑traded funds (ETFs). Since the debut of these ETFs, cumulative inflows have reached roughly $1.1 billion, according to the exchange’s statements. Although recent data from SoSoValue suggest that ETF inflows have cooled in the last few days, the aggregate net assets remain sizable, indicating that institutional investors are still allocating funds to XRP exposure.
Futures Market: Declining Open Interest
In contrast, the derivatives side of the market tells a different story. CryptoQuant’s 90‑day analysis shows a steady reduction in open interest for XRP futures across major exchanges:
| Platform | Open‑Interest Change (90 days) |
|---|---|
| Binance | –7.7 million XRP |
| Bybit | –12 million XRP |
The three‑month moving average of futures trading volume has also slipped to its lowest level since November 2024, hovering around $87 billion. CoinGlass reports that total open interest now sits near $2.37 billion, a figure that reflects a broader contraction in leveraged positions.
Price Context
At the time of writing, XRP is trading around $1.44, up roughly 5 % in the previous 24 hours and about 2 % over the past week. Nonetheless, the token remains down 23 % month‑to‑date and 38 % year‑to‑date, far short of its July 2025 peak of $3.65. Technical analysis places the token in a relatively tight range of $1.38–$1.48, with resistance near $1.40 and $1.65, and support levels around $1.11 and $0.87.
Interpreting the Divergence
The simultaneous rise in spot buying and drop in futures activity suggests a rebalancing of market participants rather than a uniform bullish surge:
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Institutional Allocation via ETFs – The influx of capital into XRP‑linked ETFs provides a straightforward way for funds to gain exposure without entering the leveraged futures market. This could explain the strong spot demand while leaving futures open interest unchanged or declining.
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Risk‑Off Sentiment Among Leveraged Traders – After a period of heightened volatility, many traders appear to be trimming leveraged positions. Lower open interest and reduced futures volume are consistent with a cautious stance, especially given broader macro‑economic uncertainties.
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Supply‑Demand Dynamics – Bitrue’s outlook hinges on the idea that sustained spot buying, combined with limited new supply, could create a “supply squeeze.” If retail and corporate demand continue to outpace the amount of XRP available for purchase, price pressure may intensify.
- ETF Flow Momentum – While recent ETF inflows have been muted, the cumulative net assets remain significant. Should inflows pick up again, they could further fuel spot‑market buying and reinforce any emerging supply deficit.
Outlook
Analysts such as CasiTrades caution that XRP must break above the $1.40–$1.65 resistance zone with solid follow‑through to sustain a meaningful rally. The key variables likely to influence the next price move include:
- Future ETF inflows – A resurgence would boost spot demand and could attract additional institutional capital.
- Leverage appetite – A rebound in futures open interest would signal renewed confidence among speculative traders.
- Regulatory developments – Ongoing litigation involving Ripple Labs could impact investor sentiment and market access.
Bitrue projects that the combination of growing retail and institutional support may lead to a significant supply shortage, positioning XRP to outperform major rivals in the second quarter of 2026. Whether this forecast materialises will depend on the alignment of the factors above.
Key Takeaways
- Spot buying on Bitrue surged 212 %, driven by institutional inflows into XRP ETFs, which have amassed roughly $1.1 billion in net assets.
- Futures open interest fell across Binance and Bybit, with a 90‑day decline of 7.7 million and 12 million XRP respectively; the three‑month futures volume average hit its lowest point since November 2024.
- Price remains modestly higher in the short term ($1.44) but is still significantly below its 2025 high, indicating limited upside without stronger catalyst.
- Market composition is shifting: institutional spot demand is rising, while leveraged traders are scaling back, leading to a divergence between spot and derivatives markets.
- Future performance hinges on ETF inflows, leverage sentiment, and regulatory outcomes; a sustained supply squeeze could push XRP higher, but resistance levels and broader market conditions will be decisive.
The analysis above synthesizes data from Bitrue, CryptoQuant, CoinGlass, and independent market observers. All figures are approximate and subject to change as new information becomes available.
Source: https://cryptopotato.com/institutional-pivot-why-xrp-spot-buying-is-skyrocketing-while-futures-open-interest-slumps/
